Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For July 28-August 3 | Bankrate

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts are divided over where rates are headed in the coming week (July 28-August 3). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 50 percent say rates are going up, and 50 percent say rates are going down. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

The slowing economy and worries about how much more the Fed will raise rates will lead to lower yields on long-term bonds, bringing mortgage rates lower as well.

— Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate

50% say rates will go up


Derek Egeberg photo

Derek Egeberg

Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Arizona

Higher. The slight improvement in bonds and flight to quality early this week will be whipsawed worse when the Fed raises rates this week. Watch for the word recession to be debated on every major news outlet because of the Fed's increase in rate.

Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage, Alamo, CA

Trend: Higher. If one subscribes to "Buy on rumor, sell on news," then recession and a Fed hike will become news, and we will see selling of Treasury and MBS debt, which will drive rates up a bit.

Michael Becker photo

Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

The Fed raised the Federal Funds rate .75% as expected, but mentioned in it’s statement that “indicators of spending and production have softened.” They said they would be data dependent in coming meetings. Bond markets like this stance and we have seen a small rally in bond prices. I think mortgage rates will improve in the coming week.

50% say rates will go down


Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Open interest in 10-Year T-Notes is outpacing their availability and has been for roughly the last month. The economics is simple from here. Demand for 10-year T-Notes is driving price up and yield down. Lower 10-Year yields will result in lower mortgage rates. Next week, long-term mortgage rates will decline. PS -- looks like we are in for a settling of mortgage rates for a while. It seems that for now, more folks are afraid of a recession and are running for cover in 10-year T-Notes vs. the Fed trimming its balance sheet by selling their stock of 10-year T-Notes. Until this trend settles, rates will slowly decline.

Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: Down. "The slowing economy and worries about how much more the Fed will raise rates will lead to lower yields on long-term bonds, bringing mortgage rates lower as well."

Les  Parker photo

Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates will go down. Here's a parody based on Led Zeppelin's classic from 1971, Black Dog: "Bulls gotta roll, can't stand still. Got a flamin' trend, can't get their fill." Who needs a tchotchke when chopped steak is taken from the household budget? Since Jobs data is a lagging indicator of a recession, its strength does not negate the negative outlook on growth. The volatile parts of inflation, food, energy, and rent undermine consumer confidence.

0% say unchanged


None of our experts predicted rates will stay the same.